Florida Politics and Jacksonville with A.G. Gancarski

[00:00:01] Mike, Mike, Mike, Mike Mikes on Mic, a conversation about politics, government, and Jacksonville with 50-year opinion leaders Mike Hightower, Mike Tolbert, and award-winning broadcaster and longtime political observer Mike Miller. Welcome to another episode of Mikes on Mic. I'm Mike Miller. And this is an unusual week for Mikes on Mic because none of the three Mikes are actually in a studio today. We're all doing it from our respective homes.

[00:00:29] Mike Hightower, by the way, is out on temporary medical leave. So Mike Tolbert and I are also remote as well as our guest for the day. As we near the statewide August primary and the November general election, then with the shadow of the two 2027 city elections looking just behind, today our guest is A.G. Gancarski, political reporter and columnist for Florida Politics, Jack Stavay, as well as about 150 other publications, were any rightful.

[00:00:56] Probably nobody is plugged in more to the day-to-day mechanics of Florida politics than A.G. And that includes the city of Jacksonville. Welcome back to Mikes on Mic, A.G. It's great to have you with us. And Mr. Tolbert, you're going to kick it off. Yeah, A.G., there's so much for us to discuss and talk about. I told Miller earlier that it kind of reminds me of the day I had a 500-pound ball of ice cream on a 98-degree day and I had to eat it before it melted.

[00:01:24] So there's no way we're going to get to everything we want to get to today. But let's get started. Let's get started with the governor and the legislature putting the elimination of property taxes on the No Grimba ballot. A new UNF poll found that when voters were told the constitutional amendment mandates that property taxes can only be used by local governments for core public services like public safety,

[00:01:51] 61%, which is over the threshold, supported the amendment and 32% opposed. But when voters were told that the amendment will mean a budget shortfall of $11.8 billion over two years, and then they were asked again, support for the amendment dropped 16 points to 45%, with 47% opposing, well below the needed 60%.

[00:02:17] Right now, the ballot language is being challenged and tested in the courts because opponents say the ballot title and summary are written in a way that persuades voters rather than being neutral. And they say that violates Florida law. What I want you to do is to bring us up to date on that legal challenge. What is it all about? When is the decision expected to be made?

[00:02:44] And what happens if the court agrees with the opponents? Yeah, I want to kind of separate those. The first one there with the UNF poll, because I think it's likely that the ballot language survives, especially this late in the game. The UNF poll basically has it underwater in an informed ballot. When voters know what is going on, voters know that it takes money off local budgets for police, fire, infrastructure, all of the things we rely on from local governments,

[00:03:13] then the amendment tanks. It's around 81% with Republicans. It's below 20% with Democrats. It's around 40% to NPAs on the informed ballot. This guy gets 60% plus to pass. So it's very daunting. And there are no real advocates for the amendment out there tub-thumping for it the way there were, say, in 2024, when DeSantis was out very aggressively working against abortion and adult-use marijuana amendments.

[00:03:42] So you don't really have the state force trying to move this in a direction. Just on Tuesday, I'm sorry, on Wednesday, rather, Rick Scott came out and said he was worried about how the amendment would affect his local government down in Collier County. Byron Donalds, the likely nominee for governor, said he worries about how it's going to affect the fiscally constrained counties. These are Republican strongholds.

[00:04:08] And the fact that these politicians are saying, now, wait a minute, this might be a bad idea, that's going to influence voters in a way that is probably going to get it closer to that 45%, 47% than the 60% it needs to pass. We've heard here in Jacksonville, Mayor Deegan, she says something, she's talking about this amendment being a poison pill for the city. It's factored into the budget.

[00:04:33] She had pressure to basically hold off on certain budget items from Republicans saying that the amendment might pass. She doesn't think it's going to, but that's going to be something that kind of looms over the budget debate to come in the next couple months in city council. Now, turning to the court cases, there are a couple of plaintiff actions that say the amendment is vague, misleading, that the language is more like political campaign language rather than a nonpartisan constitutional amendment.

[00:05:03] We'll see what happens there because you can have a court say, agree with the plaintiffs, then an appellate court does not. Even if it gets adversely ruled on in the short term and the long term, a very favorable Republican court could go in a different direction. So as of now, I'm agnostic in that court process. I'm looking very closely at what the polls are saying,

[00:05:27] the fact that support for the amendment drops off considerably when it's looked at more seriously than just an aspirational measure. Here in Jacksonville, Representative Wyman Duggan played a key role in the House to get this referendum on the ballot, get it through the legislature. The rumor has it that he's going to run for mayor in 2027. Do you think he's going to campaign for this amendment this fall?

[00:05:55] And what effect if this thing passes, do you think this will be part of his campaign in 2027 if it should pass? Yeah, I don't see Wyman doing much for this. I will say a caveat. He presided over the House session. That was a constitutionally ordered role. Daniel Perez, the House speaker, often lets the Speaker approach him, which is Wyman Duggan, preside over sessions. That happened in this case. The House moved it very quickly with a very short debate.

[00:06:23] No Republicans other than the sponsor advocated for the amendment. So Wyman Duggan is not on record saying much about this amendment. Other than the role of presiding over the legislative session when it happened. So I don't know how much it hurts him in that case. I do say that if you've got him holding the gavel while the vote tally goes up, it'll be very easy for Duggan or whomever to say, now, wait a minute, this guy was tied to this.

[00:06:53] Force him to defend his position. And in politics, the oldest saying is, if you're explaining, you're losing. So if I'm Donna Deegan, I've ever realized, I am forcing that argument that you outlined in the question. Basically, why didn't you stand against this Wyman Duggan, knowing what it would do to police, to fire, to sidewalks, to road resurfacing, to things that a city on the rise needs to thrive? So that will be the question,

[00:07:21] even though Wyman Duggan himself had very little to do with it other than that constitutionally ordinated role. Let's take a look at the gubernatorial race for a minute. Representative Byron Donalds, of course, is expected to be the Republican nominee for governor. He's raised over $90 million so far for his campaign, and with three months to go before the election, the UF poll, which we're going to be diving into more deeply in two weeks from now, said that a 46% to 41% lead over Democrat David Jolly,

[00:07:51] with 6% undecided. Now, I know we have a wage to go, but, and Donalds, of course, has a lot of money, but if the NF, the UNF poll is correct, does the closeness surprise you at this point? And should Donaldson, Donalds rather, and his campaign folks be a little worried? And if not, why not? It does not surprise me at this point. We saw a 20-point race, give or take, in 2022, when Rhonda Sands was ready for re-election. That was an anomaly. He had a very weak Democratic Party that year.

[00:08:19] You had a Democrat in the White House, which was also good for DeSantis and Republicans running statewide. This time around, you've got President Trump, who is not exactly popular swing voters at this point. And Byron Donalds, he was endorsed by Trump. So that endorsement left him to the nomination, but he needs to individuate himself, prove that he's his own man on the fall ballot. He's going to win the nomination, to be clear. So the UNF poll doesn't surprise me.

[00:08:49] I do wonder if David Jolly ultimately will appeal to some key Democratic constituencies, Blacks and women particularly. I look at some of the polling regarding the Senate race, and Alex Vindman, who is being treated as presumptive nominee, is weaker with these groups. And Democrats can't win in this state without substantial Black vote, without substantial female votes. And these people, they could stay home. They could undervote.

[00:09:20] That's very possible. It does seem like a five to seven point race right now to me, in favor of Donalds. I don't know how Jolly closes that. I'm curious to see who Donalds picks as his running mate, Gwen Graham for running with Jolly. She's well known around the state of political legacy, former congresswoman. She's known as a moderate, despite what Republicans say about her. So it's one where the Jolly Graham ticket is already betting on getting to the center and prevailing that way.

[00:09:48] So Donalds has to find his way there too. And that's going to be the trick. Luckily, he's going to have a real financial advantage going into November, but he's got to do something with it also. I'm not a political consultant, but what I would advise is for him to find a way to talk to voters that may be the leading, that the ticket, the Democratic ticket is taking for granted. I would go to Black churches. I would talk to groups who are outside the party. I'd talk to swing voters.

[00:10:17] I would find a way to let my personality as Byron Donalds shine through. And he does this on TV appearances. He does this at various times, but there are times also when he gets scripted, which Byron Donalds is going to prevail? That's the question here. I think he needs losing his tie a little bit, being natural and talk to people in the state about now, even though he's endorsed by Donald Trump, he's more than just a Trump Republican. Yeah. UNF political science professor, Michael Binder has been a guest on, Mike's on Mike, of course, a number of times.

[00:10:47] And a while back, he declared that Florida is a red state. But did you see anything in the latest UNF poll that would give you even a hint that after the November election, Florida could become a little more purple than it is today and go back to the way it was years ago? We look at party registration as a way of saying this is a red state, but I don't know how reliable that is. I know a lot of people who choose their party registration based on who they can vote for in the primary. If you're in a heavily Republican area,

[00:11:17] all your candidates are, you might become a Republican even though you're left of center. Likewise, I'm in House District 13. We've got a closed Democratic primary who's going to decide who's going to be the next state legislator. So there are probably a certain amount of people who became Democrats just to vote in that primary. I think that the closed primary system in this state, it does shuffle our expectations a little bit. It is a Republican-leaning state. Do I think we're as deep red as some others?

[00:11:47] Not necessarily. I could be proven wrong in November, but it does feel more and more like the 2018 Florida, which was a swing state where you had three recounts on the ballot. The governor's race, the Senate race, the agriculture commissioner race. And Republicans won two of those. Democrats won the other one. Florida is confounding. And I think this year is going to basically show us that 2022 and the assurances of it being Republican domination

[00:12:17] are over. I want to change lanes a minute, A.G. You reported recently that Mayor Deegan is trying to find an amicable resolution to the feud between the Jacksonville Aviation Authority and newly seated City Council President Nick Howland. And it's over the development of Cecil Field spaceport capabilities. The authority has threatened to sue the city

[00:12:45] because it feels council is attempting to undermine Jacksonville's consolidated government. And as some of us who agree with that, what the hell is this all about? And how serious is it? And what do you think will be the outcome? I think you're going to find a way to settle it. And, you know, you've got to look at this in a larger context. We saw the school board just this year trying to get its own general counsel, basically saying it's a co-equal form of government with the city council.

[00:13:15] That got shot down. They reached a compromise there. And the school board has a dedicated lawyer from the general counsel's office. In this case, the Jacksonville Aviation Authority is saying that it's a state agency, not a local agency. That's the crux of the argument. But in that context, if they're a state agency, then you would think Attorney General James Luthmire would weigh in and say,

[00:13:42] yes, this independent authority has the ability to go up against the city of Jacksonville. We haven't seen that yet. I think the appropriate course of action would be to appeal to the attorney general's office for binding opinion. That's what's done in these cases. That's what's done when you have a controversy regarding statute and local charter. That's exactly what this is. The issue here, obviously, between JEA and the city

[00:14:09] is how much effort JEA wants to put into making CISO fuel the spaceport. And whether you agree with that aim or not, the fact is the state legislature and the city council both said that was part of JEA's charge. So JEA right now is really circumventing what it is required to do. These people serve at the pleasure of who appointed them. They were not independently elected. If they were, it would be a different matter.

[00:14:38] But I think Mayor Deegan is going to find a way to bring this in for a landing. I don't necessarily believe that it's going to go any other way because this is one where the state and the city have an interest in this thing being resolved amicably. And for this to go to a courtroom, it's going to raise a lot of questions. It'd be very interesting for charter lawyers, for constitutional lawyers, but in terms of functional government, not so much.

[00:15:06] Let's talk about Mayor Deegan and fundraising. We talked about how the fundraising that it's been done in the past. For political committee, Duval for All is raised now about $2.4 million for her re-election campaign. It's a far cry from her first campaign in 2023. Now, I've not taken a close look at the most recent campaign report, but I'm hearing that she's picked up the support of some of the same people that supported Daniel Davis in her first campaign. Can you verify if that's true, by the way?

[00:15:34] And who are some of those contributors, if you don't mind mentioning them, and who among those contributors is the biggest surprise to you, if any? No, she got about $2.6 million on hand between the political committee and the campaign account. A lot of Republican money there. Rashad Khan's on board. Maury Hosseini's on board. Patrick Solipsky's on board. A lot of the donor class that backed Daniel Davis in 2023 is on board.

[00:16:00] One of the hallmarks of this administration is that it's found a way to work with chamber Republicans. And when we looked at, say, Alvin Brown in 2015, Alvin Brown could not get along with the chamber. That's the reason the chamber endorsed Lenny Curry. This time around, if the chamber PAC endorses, very well could back Donna Deegan, based on where this money is flowing. Wyman Duggan, everybody's saying he's going to run.

[00:16:29] I say it's not official until somebody qualifies, of course. But he's acting like a candidate. He's appearing at events. He's taking questions, all those things. Wyman Duggan's going to need to get money from somewhere. I think you'll see a lot of Tallahassee and Washington money come in for him. When and if that happens, that will be an attack point for Deegan's team. Deegan will say, out-of-town interest, D.C. interest, D.C. Duggan, blah, blah, blah. You can just see the mail pieces from here.

[00:16:57] You can just plug them to the AI or write them up. And that's the way it's going to go. But Duggan, he's a really strong fundraiser. He has more than a million in his own political committee. And when you look at it that way, he could catch up. I think in the end, you're going to see a $10 million, $15 million race between these two candidates. It's going to be expensive, and it's going to be interesting. I would hope, for Wyman Duggan's sake, that he doesn't make the mistake that Daniel Davis made in his 2023 campaign.

[00:17:27] Daniel Davis may have been the worst citywide candidate we have ever seen. He's lived here all of his life. He has legacy here. His family's from here. But when it came down to talking to voters, he sounded like Opie Taylor a lot of times. He sounded over his head. In his ads, TK Waters did a lot of speaking for him. For Wyman Duggan to make this work, he can't let, say, Lenny Curry do the talking for him.

[00:17:52] Wyman Duggan's got to get out there, go on the attack, and say what Deegan is doing wrong in emphatic terms that put her on the defense. Right now, I'm not seeing that happening. So, Wyman Duggan, if you're listening to this, you've got some work to do, Pat. Whew. Again, I want to change lanes.

[00:18:10] Since February, the state attorney has reportedly been investigating Haybro Carrico about whether Kevin Carrico improperly used his position as Jacksonville City Council President in matters involving JEA and whether any original laws may have been violated. What, if anything, A.G., are you hearing about the status of the investigation?

[00:18:34] And will it have been, when it's all said and done with it, will it be one of those, something about nothing, like Carrico's allegations about the JEA and his investigative committee? Or will it be something of substance, do you think? I think what we see with this in the end is, I don't think we see charges. Carrico is no longer council president, so there's not really much that can be done to him in this case.

[00:18:59] He's not going to be council president again, in all likelihood, given how his year atop the presidency went. I think what we'll get is we'll get a report on the Friday before holiday weekend, maybe 4.55 p.m. or something, too late for local newscasts to actually synthesize, that says that things were done that were wrong, but they didn't rise to formal charges. That's the modus operandi with the state attorney's office. They take a long time with these investigations.

[00:19:27] We saw in the case of Ken Sternum a couple years back, there were issues around his death and around his activities. And that took months and months to resolve, and lo and behold, it came out when nobody was paying attention. That would be the case here also. I just find it to be the way the state attorney works. She won't do a formal charge in this case, but she will say that this activity is frowned upon officially.

[00:19:56] Well, listen, we're just about running out of time here, A.G., and I've got a final question for you. Let's just imagine that we're having coffee in the morning after the election in 2027, all right? What headline would genuinely surprise you about that outcome? Oh, Wyman Duggan defeats Donna Deegan. That would be especially surprising in March, but let's presume we're talking about May here. Also, Democrats take city council. That would be another surprise.

[00:20:24] I think the status quo is going to pretty much hold. You'll see a functional Republican supermajority atop the council. You'll see Mayor Deegan win again. A lot of people say that, yes, a Democrat hasn't won re-election in however many years, so she's vulnerable, etc. But she's a great communicator. She is the best smack talker we've seen in Jacksonville politics since prime period. Tommy Azuri or Jake Godbold.

[00:20:52] Respect to Lenny Curry, never reached that level. And Donna Deegan is an ad lib artist. And people say she's not a great administrator, etc., etc. Most of these people out here voting aren't looking at administration. They're not looking at line item budgets. What they're looking at is a soundbite. They're looking at somebody who is sharp on camera. And Donna Deegan has been on camera since I was old enough to turn on a TV set. She has the advantage here.

[00:21:18] I don't know how much media coaching Wyman Duggan's getting, but he needs to get it because he's going to have to debate her. He's going to have to outdo her in soundbites. And you don't learn that in Tallahassee. You don't learn that as a lobbyist. You don't learn that in white-shoe courtrooms. You learn that through taking the reps, through trial and error, and through learning how to land a notable quotable in about 30 seconds. That's Donna Deegan's game.

[00:21:47] AG, always a pleasure having you on. Your insight and your background are just terrific. And I know the audience appreciates you to be being on the show as well. So thank you very much for being with us. Thank you. And that's going to do it for all of us. Once again, we want to thank our donors, of course, who keep the lights on and the cameras rolling for us. And I guess we could promote this already because I've already gotten a confirmation, but we made reference to the UNF poll from the Public Opinion Research Lab in the show.

[00:22:13] And we're going to be diving much more deeply into that poll and the results from that poll when Sean Frieder from UNF joins us in two weeks from now. So we hope you'll join us for that. Thanks for joining us here, and we'll see you again soon. Take care. Mike's on Mike. Mike. With Mike Tolbert, Mike Hightower, and Mike Miller can be found on your favorite podcasting platform, Facebook, and YouTube. Visit the website at mikesonmike.com. Join us next time for more conversation with Mikes on Mic.

[00:22:44] Mike. Mike.