The Hidden Struggle in Today's Political Communications with Dr. Michael Binder

[00:00:00] Mikes on Mic, Mike Miller, Mike Hightower Mike Tolbert, Mike Miller, Michael, Mike Tolbert

[00:00:30] another mic with us. This is now, jeez, this is amazing that we've got this whole table

[00:00:34] full of mics and microphones as well. Michael Benders with us, Dr. Benders, professor of

[00:00:39] the Department of Political Science and Public Administration at the University of North

[00:00:43] Florida, also a faculty director of UNF's Public Opinion Research Laboratory. Now our

[00:00:49] original intent when we invited Dr. Bender to join us here was to discuss the results

[00:00:53] of the recently completed session of the Florida Legislature and specifically its

[00:00:57] impact on Jacksonville in Northeast Florida and we'll get into that a little bit

[00:01:01] later on. But now, with the State Supreme Court handing down two very interesting

[00:01:06] judgments that will put referenda on abortion and recreational marijuana on the

[00:01:11] state ballot, that's what we're going to be talking about here at least in the

[00:01:15] beginning of the show. But before we begin, we do want to mention and we'll

[00:01:19] get into this a little bit later on as well and that is what recently happened

[00:01:23] in Kansas City, Missouri where voters turned down a referendum to extend their

[00:01:28] sales tax to raise $2 billion in public funding to build a new baseball stadium

[00:01:33] for the Royals and to renovate the stadium for the Chiefs. They both went

[00:01:37] down in defeat and we're going to get Dr. Benders thoughts on that in just

[00:01:41] a couple of moments. But Mike, Taubert, why don't you kick it off?

[00:01:44] Dr. Bender, thank you for being here and I wasn't with you last time but

[00:01:47] I'm glad to be with you now and finally meet you in person.

[00:01:49] Thanks for having me. I mean, if Tabel full of mics, how could I not be here?

[00:01:52] You look even younger than I thought.

[00:01:57] Compared to him by the way, everybody looks like this.

[00:01:59] He's also the one that has hair.

[00:02:02] True.

[00:02:03] We hadn't noticed.

[00:02:07] As Mayor Degen and her negotiating team and the Jaguars continue to slug

[00:02:12] through this contract that they're trying to come to on the stadium of

[00:02:17] the future, which we keep hearing as a billion dollar cost and probably

[00:02:21] going to be more than that. Remind us of what you're polling and given

[00:02:25] the Kansas City thing that they had a referendum, which we're not looking

[00:02:29] at right now. Remind us of what you're polling said about the

[00:02:33] popularity of the Jaguars and the stadium deal.

[00:02:36] Well, I think there's two ways to consider this. The first is,

[00:02:41] you know, do generally speaking folks think that they want to shell out

[00:02:45] a bunch of money to a billionaire for a sports stadium that they

[00:02:49] probably don't go to. The answer is no, right? Folks are not in favor of that.

[00:02:54] We asked them what their preferences for how the stadium gets funded.

[00:02:58] 51% said, let the billionaire pay for his toys that he makes.

[00:03:02] Think about the value of the Jaguars when he bought it a dozen years ago

[00:03:06] and what it is today. You know what it is?

[00:03:09] It's like one point something now. One point nine.

[00:03:12] No, it was he bought it for seven hundred and seven million from the

[00:03:16] Weavers. And I just happened to have to figure here.

[00:03:19] It's worth four billion. Four.

[00:03:20] Right. So so there's been profit made in a dozen years, right?

[00:03:24] Again, give me that kind of return on any of my investments.

[00:03:27] That being said, we pressed folks.

[00:03:30] OK, if it meant the Jaguars leaving, which is the threat that

[00:03:34] they are implicitly giving us all the time, suddenly it's much closer.

[00:03:39] It's 50-50, 46 to 47.

[00:03:42] So folks are potentially willing to pay out, but it's a toss up.

[00:03:49] And I think that's why we're seeing locally folks that, you know,

[00:03:52] maybe have concerns about this going down.

[00:03:55] If it were to go to a ballot referendum,

[00:03:58] maybe they don't want to quite put it on a ballot measure

[00:04:00] because their preferences on policy might outweigh their belief in process.

[00:04:06] Well, that's interesting.

[00:04:07] You know, I've been I've done a number of referendums

[00:04:10] and I have always found it's a lot easier.

[00:04:13] It's actually when it involves tax increases.

[00:04:15] It's a lot easier to feed them than it is to pass them.

[00:04:18] And I want to insert a hypothetical here because I don't know this

[00:04:22] to be a case, but I would give in the Kansas City thing

[00:04:27] and thinking about some of the previous referendums we've had

[00:04:30] with the city council, for instance, in the school board situation,

[00:04:33] raised one mill wouldn't even let wouldn't let it pass to go on the ballot,

[00:04:37] which was their job. Remember the argument about shall?

[00:04:40] Yeah. And you know, and so I can see this is going to sound crazy,

[00:04:45] but I can see a scenario where, for instance, Roy Diamond

[00:04:50] looking at Kansas City and all the money raises his hand

[00:04:54] and says, you know, I just I want this to happen.

[00:04:57] But I'm not sure we should be the ones making this decision.

[00:05:00] It should come from the taxpayers.

[00:05:02] And then I can see another council member said, I agree with that.

[00:05:05] And it kind of taken a snowball.

[00:05:06] Do you think this has a chance of that really can come to pass?

[00:05:09] I think that's exceptionally unlikely, mostly because

[00:05:14] the idea is going before the voters is completely reasonable.

[00:05:18] And it's not necessarily true that these referenda don't pass.

[00:05:22] You're Jacksonville has a history of passing all of these referendums.

[00:05:26] Not all of them, but some of them.

[00:05:27] Darn near the six out of the last seven.

[00:05:30] I mean, there's a there's a history here.

[00:05:32] If you and this is not just Jacksonville, good leadership.

[00:05:37] But it's not just Jacksonville.

[00:05:40] But it's not just Jacksonville.

[00:05:41] This is all over the country.

[00:05:43] If you give voters a tangible benefit or a tangible good

[00:05:47] and you say, listen, it costs X,

[00:05:50] a lot of times are voting for that more often than not.

[00:05:54] In fact, they vote for that.

[00:05:55] The problem is if the what you're giving them is uncertain

[00:06:00] and you've talked about Kansas City and the idea that you've got

[00:06:03] two things on the ballot, the baseball stadium and the football stadium.

[00:06:06] The baseball baseball stadium was a morphist that there really wasn't

[00:06:09] a plan about what that was going to look like, where it was going to go.

[00:06:12] There was a ton of uncertainty about it.

[00:06:13] So yeah, it would make sense that's not going to pass.

[00:06:16] But if you have a real concrete plan and you say, this is the benefit.

[00:06:20] This is the cost.

[00:06:20] This is how it's going to get paid for voters are willing to go along for that.

[00:06:24] Right? We did it for the schools.

[00:06:26] We did it for the gas tax just in the last couple of years.

[00:06:28] And we can go on and on salary, salary, all those.

[00:06:32] That were the tolls.

[00:06:33] Got the tolls.

[00:06:34] Better Jacksonville plan.

[00:06:35] And speaking of better Jacksonville plan, a number of people have said this

[00:06:39] that I've talked to about why it passed.

[00:06:43] And one of the most important reasons I keep hearing is the lollipop.

[00:06:48] If you remember that term that was used with the better Jacksonville plan

[00:06:51] in that plan, one million dollars went to each district city councilman

[00:06:56] to do whatever they wanted to as long as it had to do with parks in their district.

[00:07:01] That wasn't uncommon.

[00:07:03] Trust me.

[00:07:04] That was no, that was kind of standard procedure.

[00:07:07] But did they do that with school taxes?

[00:07:09] Not only by school taxes, but I know a couple of years.

[00:07:11] Did they do that with the Renaissance plan?

[00:07:13] I don't know.

[00:07:13] But I know.

[00:07:15] Yeah, there was the need to get pay us.

[00:07:17] We didn't call them lollipops.

[00:07:19] We referred to them as incentives.

[00:07:21] OK.

[00:07:25] But even the school district plan, right?

[00:07:27] There was a list of the schools and guess what?

[00:07:29] They were spread out the top of that list had some schools in every single district.

[00:07:34] Exactly.

[00:07:34] And so there's a reason for that.

[00:07:35] Better Jacksonville did the same thing with that eight hundred million dollars.

[00:07:38] He did the same thing with that.

[00:07:39] You know, and I think the other thing, which you've made it very important,

[00:07:42] that thing in Kansas City, it was one county in the way of it.

[00:07:46] It was and it was haphazardly done to say the least.

[00:07:49] And it got back policy.

[00:07:51] I think in this one is you've got what we're hearing,

[00:07:54] which you've got a new administration with the mayor is working.

[00:07:58] You've got people inside.

[00:07:59] Councils got their own attorneys.

[00:08:01] I think you make a very good point in the fact is how they roll it out.

[00:08:05] The devil's in the detail.

[00:08:06] What are they going to say?

[00:08:08] What's the what's Jaguar's going to put on the table?

[00:08:11] What's the city going to do it?

[00:08:12] And then I think the other part that's a part of that.

[00:08:15] Though I do believe that there'll be some members of the council

[00:08:17] who would rather pass the buck, kick the can down so they don't have to

[00:08:21] when they run for election. They can't say to do it.

[00:08:23] But I do believe when they roll out the details and the fact is

[00:08:27] we're still one of 32 cities.

[00:08:29] And I think that's really there's there's two in New Jersey and there's two.

[00:08:34] And I just I go back to there's three important.

[00:08:40] I am I am I am I am much more optimistic.

[00:08:46] I think when you roll it out and you see what's going to happen between

[00:08:49] and the other thing you got to remember is the Jaguars are also working

[00:08:53] with the city council, why there may be some folks that will kick that can down

[00:08:57] or we'll try to take a punt.

[00:09:00] They need 10 votes if it passes in the tent.

[00:09:02] I think I don't think it's super majority.

[00:09:05] No, it's a 10 on believe so. I think it's 10.

[00:09:07] I think it's 10.

[00:09:09] I don't know if this is going to play into it.

[00:09:11] I certainly hope it doesn't, but you have to raise the issue.

[00:09:14] Is this going to be seen if it passes by city council?

[00:09:17] Is this going to be seen as a feather in the mayor's cap?

[00:09:20] And if so, how is that going to play with the ours that are on the council

[00:09:24] as well as their consultants?

[00:09:26] Ask our expert.

[00:09:27] Well, I mean, I mean, there's two things going on here.

[00:09:29] Right. One is policy outcome.

[00:09:32] You know, do you want to invest in the stadium?

[00:09:34] Do you want to keep them here? Whatever.

[00:09:36] It's process. Right.

[00:09:37] Do you think that the voters like they have in many other cities,

[00:09:40] not Indianapolis supported it, you know, several years back,

[00:09:44] there's places that do this and do vote yes.

[00:09:47] So it's not like you sent it to the voters.

[00:09:49] They all say no.

[00:09:51] But there's reason to say, listen, if we're going to make an investment of this money,

[00:09:55] you know, voters should have a say on that.

[00:09:57] Now, what does that politically mean for the mayor?

[00:10:00] And yeah, it's absolutely going to be a boon for her

[00:10:03] assuming that it's viewed positively.

[00:10:07] If this is viewed negatively, we talked about lot J off air

[00:10:10] and how that was really just botched from the start.

[00:10:13] If it's viewed like that, maybe those Republicans on council,

[00:10:18] even though most of them are going to vote for it, can point to her and say,

[00:10:22] wow, this is her responsibility.

[00:10:23] She's spending all this money.

[00:10:24] We would have gotten a better deal, but we weren't the ones bargaining.

[00:10:28] I like that.

[00:10:29] I don't think that's going to be.

[00:10:30] I think you're talking about two different administrations.

[00:10:33] I don't want to go in.

[00:10:34] I beat the former administration that horse to death.

[00:10:37] I there's this this administration and the Jaguars involved

[00:10:42] with the stadium, with this administration on this issue

[00:10:46] and the way they're dealing with the council is total apples

[00:10:48] and baseball bats compared to a lot J.

[00:10:50] I would say that personalities process and the whole part

[00:10:55] that that's one my observation, but it's all but nonetheless,

[00:10:59] but it's insightful.

[00:11:01] But it's also a lot of money that's coming out of taxpayer

[00:11:03] wallets. No question.

[00:11:05] No question.

[00:11:06] And they also know that another ton of money is going to be

[00:11:08] coming out of their pockets to move the jail.

[00:11:10] Right? That's another billion dollar program.

[00:11:12] And we've talked about that as well.

[00:11:14] The question I've asked is that what is our bonding capacity

[00:11:17] as a city? Can we can we go to the street and try to get

[00:11:20] two large projects like this done at the same time?

[00:11:22] Well, they're not going to be going at the same time.

[00:11:25] I mean, they'll be close, but it's not at the same time.

[00:11:27] You know, my understanding you don't think they'll both be

[00:11:29] this year?

[00:11:31] No, no, no.

[00:11:33] I don't think the jail gets done.

[00:11:34] No, I still don't believe people have realized that

[00:11:39] it's going to roll out and they're going to want a billion

[00:11:41] dollars for the jail.

[00:11:42] Oh, I know.

[00:11:44] You know, when you did the poll last September, didn't

[00:11:47] didn't that question get asked as a way of saying a

[00:11:49] billion dollars might be for a new jail?

[00:11:51] We did have a billion because the numbers were much lower.

[00:11:54] That's right.

[00:11:54] Because you said, yeah, well, I mean, we did a billion

[00:11:57] for the stadium.

[00:11:58] I mean, I think that's going to be a low number for the

[00:12:00] city's cost.

[00:12:01] If I mean, I don't understand how this isn't a two

[00:12:03] billion dollar project.

[00:12:04] If you take a look at other new jails that have been

[00:12:06] building what they were planning.

[00:12:07] That's what.

[00:12:08] Chails or stadiums, right?

[00:12:09] I mean, I think this is an ex-

[00:12:11] both these are going to be exorbitant and you're

[00:12:13] not starting building today.

[00:12:15] You know, you're multiple years down the road and

[00:12:17] we've seen what can happen to construction costs

[00:12:19] over that time.

[00:12:21] Better tax roll plan is a good example.

[00:12:22] I mean very much so.

[00:12:23] Every very much so.

[00:12:25] What in school systems?

[00:12:26] Exactly.

[00:12:27] We're going on right now with the schools.

[00:12:29] And the price of materials.

[00:12:32] And labor.

[00:12:33] Yes, if you can find it.

[00:12:35] And you know, I mean, this is a we're very far off

[00:12:37] topic, but you know, we talk about immigration

[00:12:39] here, you know, who does a lot of this work?

[00:12:41] And we saw this in Baltimore when that bridge

[00:12:43] collapsed, right?

[00:12:44] These aren't folks oftentimes that are born

[00:12:46] in this country.

[00:12:47] If you make it harder to get here, you restrict

[00:12:49] the labor market and you increase the price

[00:12:50] and make it harder to get.

[00:12:52] Are they going to separate the surrounding

[00:12:56] multi-use, I don't want to call it Laje Part 2,

[00:13:01] but are they going to separate that from the stadium?

[00:13:04] Or are we talking now about close to a $3 billion

[00:13:06] total cost?

[00:13:07] I mean, I think you have to.

[00:13:08] And I think if you're the Jaguars, you want

[00:13:10] them to in some ways.

[00:13:11] Yeah, if you can get all the money up front,

[00:13:13] yeah, that's great.

[00:13:14] But you run the risk of polluting it.

[00:13:16] Whereas if you just get the stadium, once

[00:13:18] you've got the stadium, now you're like,

[00:13:20] well, you're already in for this much.

[00:13:22] If we really want to do this and make it better,

[00:13:25] we've got to do that.

[00:13:26] Yeah.

[00:13:27] And you just kind of pull people along

[00:13:28] one string at a time.

[00:13:29] Just as an observation, as I had a meeting

[00:13:32] yesterday at the stadium, as we went down there,

[00:13:34] guess what?

[00:13:35] We're the new hotel.

[00:13:40] There's two cranes down there, guys.

[00:13:42] Two big cranes.

[00:13:43] It's been a long time since Dexterville's seen

[00:13:45] a crane.

[00:13:46] There are two of them down there by the stadium.

[00:13:49] Good to know.

[00:13:50] Yeah, for four seasons right there.

[00:13:52] Yeah.

[00:13:53] I mean, they're two cranes.

[00:13:54] It's been what?

[00:13:55] When was the last time we saw a crane downtown?

[00:13:57] Speaking of two things.

[00:13:58] I think there was a great crane that flew over from there.

[00:14:01] Speaking of two cranes.

[00:14:04] Yes, sir.

[00:14:06] Let's talk about two referendums.

[00:14:08] All right.

[00:14:09] Not the stadium itself, but two real referendums.

[00:14:12] Yeah, this is Mr. Miller's big thing.

[00:14:15] The referendum on recreational marijuana and abortion.

[00:14:19] It seems like whenever you hear that discussed recently

[00:14:22] about people involved in politics, they indicate

[00:14:26] they think it's going to have an impact on the presidential

[00:14:28] election in November.

[00:14:30] My question, I guess, to you is what do you think

[00:14:33] and have you guys done any polling around that?

[00:14:36] So there's several questions in there.

[00:14:38] First, the impact on presidential elections.

[00:14:41] I've done a paper on this and I've done a lot of

[00:14:43] research in this regard.

[00:14:44] Very limited.

[00:14:46] In fact, there's no evidence that on average

[00:14:48] ballot measures increase turnout during presidential elections.

[00:14:52] Now, part of the reason is presidential elections,

[00:14:56] you're almost at max capacity for turnout anyway.

[00:15:00] Is there a little bit of wiggle room depending on the election?

[00:15:03] Yes.

[00:15:04] Would I expect this election to have a little bit less

[00:15:06] turnout than 2020?

[00:15:07] Yes.

[00:15:08] But by and large, your marginal voters,

[00:15:10] they're the folks that don't show up at the midterms.

[00:15:13] So really where you see the impact from ballot measures

[00:15:15] is during midterm elections, you'll see boosts

[00:15:17] in overall turnout.

[00:15:18] Does that mean that there aren't some small percentages

[00:15:21] of people that might be turned on by a ballot measure

[00:15:24] and be inclined to vote?

[00:15:25] Yes.

[00:15:26] Abortion, we talk about that all the time,

[00:15:28] it's gotten a lot of attention in the last couple years.

[00:15:30] All those ballot measures have been off cycle,

[00:15:32] off year elections.

[00:15:34] Now, what happens in November?

[00:15:37] Folks that care about that issue,

[00:15:39] they're voting anyway.

[00:15:41] Folks that are invested in the process,

[00:15:43] they're showing up.

[00:15:44] I don't think that impacts turn out at all.

[00:15:46] The marijuana one, there are some folks that maybe inclined

[00:15:48] to turn out that haven't otherwise.

[00:15:50] The real question is, is that going to impact them

[00:15:52] to either vote on other boxes?

[00:15:55] Do they vote for our president or they vote

[00:15:57] for local state offices?

[00:15:59] Probably, but not all the time.

[00:16:01] And then what does that number actually look like?

[00:16:03] And in Florida's case, is it going to be enough

[00:16:07] to overcome the demographic change that we've had here

[00:16:10] in Florida where we've gone from a plus two, plus three D state

[00:16:14] that was essentially a purple toss up to now a plus three R state

[00:16:18] that is red?

[00:16:20] And the answer is no.

[00:16:21] There is no way on the planet that Joe Biden

[00:16:24] is winning Florida in November of 2024.

[00:16:27] If I remember correctly, the last time you were here

[00:16:30] when you made that statement, when we asked about

[00:16:33] where Florida was and you said, take it to the bank,

[00:16:37] it's a red state and we all kind of dropped our jaw.

[00:16:41] We thought we were in, you know, that we were a possible little debt.

[00:16:46] But we're not.

[00:16:47] And then I saw in the paper again,

[00:16:50] that ours have a $700,000, 700,000 vote registration over Ds.

[00:16:59] So when you made that comment about, we're now red.

[00:17:02] Wow.

[00:17:03] So you really, really don't believe that those two issues

[00:17:06] are going to move it?

[00:17:07] No, not at all.

[00:17:08] Not in Florida?

[00:17:09] Not in Florida.

[00:17:10] No.

[00:17:11] And Florida's not in play.

[00:17:12] It's a purple state.

[00:17:13] Sorry, Mike.

[00:17:14] It's just not.

[00:17:16] First of all, you're assuming that the marijuana vote

[00:17:19] is only going to be from Ds.

[00:17:21] And I'm telling you, that's not the case.

[00:17:25] No, the marijuana vote, and that's the thing, right?

[00:17:27] You talk about, oh, it's not just from Ds.

[00:17:29] It's from Republicans.

[00:17:30] Yes, but guess what?

[00:17:32] They're still going to vote for a Republican at the top of the ticket.

[00:17:35] And they're going to vote for Republicans on down the line, right?

[00:17:38] Rick Scott is not in danger of losing re-election.

[00:17:41] And that's important for everybody to keep in mind.

[00:17:44] Does marijuana pass?

[00:17:46] I certainly think it has a real good chance.

[00:17:48] And 60% is a high bar.

[00:17:50] There was what, 72% for medical?

[00:17:52] Medical was, yeah, medical 72%.

[00:17:54] 72%.

[00:17:55] It's a high bar, but I think it has a real honest chance.

[00:17:58] And I think I'd probably put it as a betting favorite to pass.

[00:18:01] I think abortion is close.

[00:18:03] We had it at 62% when we pulled in the fall among registered voters.

[00:18:07] There'll be, I don't want to say there's going to be an active campaign against it,

[00:18:10] but I would envision based on some of the comments coming from the governor's mansion

[00:18:14] that there's some opposition to it.

[00:18:17] But that's different than tens or hundreds of millions of dollars poured in TV ads.

[00:18:21] Just some comments that people that are in the know pay attention to is different

[00:18:25] from being blasted when you're watching TV, watching a football game during the fall.

[00:18:29] Right.

[00:18:30] But 60% is tough.

[00:18:32] And we haven't seen that in a red state.

[00:18:35] We've seen ballot measures with verb abortion pass, but it's 54%, 56%.

[00:18:40] They haven't gotten to 60, so 60 is a tough one to get to.

[00:18:43] There is an interesting...

[00:18:45] There's a particular podcast that I watch and listen to rather every week.

[00:18:49] It's called Hacks on Tap.

[00:18:51] I don't know if you're familiar with Hacks on Tap or not, but it's David Axelrod.

[00:18:55] It's Michael Murphy and Robert Gibbs.

[00:18:57] It's a great, great podcast.

[00:18:59] And one of the things that they've been talking about regarding the top of the ticket

[00:19:04] is that one of the guests that appeared on their show, and I'm sorry I can't remember who he was,

[00:19:10] but he had said that he felt the biggest competition for Joe Biden is not Donald Trump.

[00:19:17] He said it's the couch.

[00:19:20] He said because African-American voters, and the guest was African-American,

[00:19:24] said that there is a common belief within the African-American community

[00:19:28] that the government has not done enough for them.

[00:19:31] Neither side has done enough.

[00:19:33] And because of that, their thinking is that the African-American vote is going to stay home

[00:19:39] and not vote.

[00:19:40] And that's a huge block that, as you know, Biden needed to get in order to get the electoral votes.

[00:19:47] Do you see that being an issue here?

[00:19:49] Well, he didn't get the vote that Obama got for obvious reasons.

[00:19:52] And the same thing happened here in 22, with Charlie Christ, right?

[00:19:57] Gillum got a much larger share of the black vote to turn out.

[00:20:02] There's not somebody on the ballot that's black at the top of the ticket.

[00:20:05] It doesn't drive turnout nearly the same way.

[00:20:07] So that happened.

[00:20:08] Biden was able to overcome that in 20.

[00:20:11] I think he potentially could overcome it again.

[00:20:13] The thing with the fall of 24 is it doesn't matter what happens in Florida.

[00:20:17] It doesn't matter what happens in New York.

[00:20:18] It matters what happens in maybe a handful of states, you know, Wisconsin, Michigan,

[00:20:22] Pennsylvania, maybe Arizona.

[00:20:24] And it's going to be 10, 15,000 people in either direction.

[00:20:28] And that's a really, really small number of folks when you're thinking about a country of 300 million.

[00:20:33] Going back to Mike Talbers' question about the two referendums and your polling,

[00:20:38] let's put aside that you say Florida is red.

[00:20:41] Sure.

[00:20:42] In your polling, how does Duvall County, North Florida come out?

[00:20:45] We come out, you know, we're supportive of these ballot measures.

[00:20:49] And even when you break it down by partisanship, and that's kind of where this is worth looking at,

[00:20:55] Democrats are much more supportive of these ballot measures writ large across the state than Republicans are, obviously.

[00:21:01] But Republicans are pro-Marijuana and they're even pro-abortion too, just over 50%.

[00:21:08] So these are ballot measures that do stand a chance and they do have cross-party support.

[00:21:14] The trick is, is it 60% plus?

[00:21:18] And that's going to be the tough thing to get to.

[00:21:20] Certainly for abortion, I think marijuana has a much better chance.

[00:21:23] Interesting.

[00:21:25] Don't look at me.

[00:21:27] You want to talk about the session a little bit?

[00:21:30] Yeah, let's talk about the session.

[00:21:32] What do you think?

[00:21:33] I think if you don't have somewhere to live, the state made it much more difficult for the city

[00:21:39] to do your business and kind of manage that.

[00:21:43] Cities have been wrestling with homelessness for, I don't know, a couple hundred years now, maybe here in this country.

[00:21:48] And now that the state has really in some ways deputized citizens and businesses to sue the state

[00:21:57] if there's homeless folks around their properties, it has really changed the dynamic

[00:22:03] and it's an enormous unfunded mandate for the cities to deal with.

[00:22:07] I mean nobody's been able to solve this problem, right?

[00:22:10] Aren't we losing a lot of home rule though, through this legislative session?

[00:22:15] Losing slash lost, for example, Airbnb rules, the state has kind of washed that away.

[00:22:23] The ability for local cities to mandate requirements for work that's done during the heat

[00:22:29] has been washed away by Tallahassee.

[00:22:31] No, yeah, absolutely.

[00:22:32] If you believe in local rule and home rule and local governance,

[00:22:36] Tallahassee for the last couple of years has just been taking, I wouldn't say a hatchet,

[00:22:40] I'd say a chainsaw to those premises.

[00:22:42] One of those wasn't it also ethics?

[00:22:44] I mean that was, they pulled a rug out under ethics, the state's ethics.

[00:22:49] Can't imagine why they would want to do that.

[00:22:51] Well, I mean, talk about raising the bar, it's impossible now.

[00:22:55] I mean you just, which is there's no watchdog.

[00:23:00] And this is at the same time that there is a big attack on local and national media

[00:23:07] and there's market forces that are making it harder for those folks to do their jobs.

[00:23:12] And now you're making it even harder for folks that are maybe involved in the process

[00:23:18] to call a flag and throw up a whistle.

[00:23:22] What are we going to do?

[00:23:23] It's a big giant grift and I can absolutely understand where there's a lot of skepticism

[00:23:28] that's going on around this country and looking at politicians of all stripes and negative lights.

[00:23:33] How do you, how?

[00:23:36] And I'm going to ask for forgiveness for sounding too partisan here because I don't really mean to be,

[00:23:42] but when I took political science in college many, many, many years ago.

[00:23:48] They had college back then.

[00:23:49] We did have a, we had little tablets we used to play with chalk, but yeah.

[00:23:53] He and Jefferson Davis went to the same.

[00:23:57] And we started this.

[00:23:58] We told her it was my teacher.

[00:23:59] So that there's...

[00:24:01] Back then he wasn't a barn, he was a covered wagon.

[00:24:04] Yeah.

[00:24:05] I had been and this is Indiana so I know lives are different, but I was under the impression

[00:24:11] and taught that one of the main differences between the Democrat Party and the Republican Party

[00:24:18] is that the Republican Party was for less government interference in your daily life.

[00:24:25] When did that change?

[00:24:26] Well, it's never really truly been that way.

[00:24:29] It's just what...

[00:24:30] I knew that professor didn't know what the hell he was talking about.

[00:24:33] That's why I flunked it.

[00:24:35] It's what part of your life you're concerned with.

[00:24:38] Right?

[00:24:39] I mean, we can look back a generation or two and the interest in your,

[00:24:43] what happens in your bedroom and what happens in your home has always been more interest on the right than the left.

[00:24:48] What happens with your checkbook?

[00:24:50] Maybe there's been more interest on the left than in the right.

[00:24:53] But, and we've seen this change even stronger in the last decade or so,

[00:24:59] you know, the role that Donald Trump has played in shaping the Republican Party into a much more populist party.

[00:25:06] The populist ideology is not your traditional liberal conservative ideology.

[00:25:12] I hold close to these tenants of small government in these circumstances.

[00:25:16] It's very much policy-based and grievance-based and personality-based.

[00:25:21] And those things don't necessarily always jive with a strict ideological code.

[00:25:27] Well...

[00:25:28] Yeah.

[00:25:29] Okay, here's one to throw out.

[00:25:32] If Donald Trump loses this election, is he finished?

[00:25:38] Does he still have a political role to play?

[00:25:42] Do you believe if he's defeated now for the third time?

[00:25:46] Sure.

[00:25:47] Sure. I would see him having a role to play.

[00:25:51] I don't know that that role would extend to 2028, but I certainly think as long as he's...

[00:25:55] He'd be 80, what, I know?

[00:25:57] He'd be almost Joe Biden's age.

[00:25:59] Right.

[00:26:00] Or Talbert's.

[00:26:02] But I'm not coming back.

[00:26:06] You guys are so cruel.

[00:26:07] This will teach you to come to town.

[00:26:12] Have you met our oldest commudant on the show?

[00:26:15] Just had an idiot's birthday and we're all sweet and then over.

[00:26:18] Sorry, Mike.

[00:26:19] But I do think that he does have a following that could be influential, certainly with endorsements

[00:26:28] and fundraising and things of that nature.

[00:26:30] Now, does that mean he has the national presence that he used to?

[00:26:33] Listen, and I draw this analogy and I don't mean it to be derogatory necessarily,

[00:26:38] but I think it holds.

[00:26:40] The bully in the schoolyard is the bully in the schoolyard until somebody stands up

[00:26:44] and beats that bully down just because you get a lucky punch in.

[00:26:47] If the guy comes back the next day, you're going to have to do it again

[00:26:51] and again until he decides not to come back.

[00:26:53] Is there an error parent to Donald Trump?

[00:26:55] No.

[00:26:56] And I think that's exceptionally clear and that's what happens when you rely on

[00:27:01] the politics of personality.

[00:27:03] You don't have the ability to create a bench as people would say in the political world.

[00:27:08] You are relying on a singular entity and when you're married to that entity,

[00:27:13] if it's a successful one, that's great.

[00:27:15] But you cannot replicate that.

[00:27:18] Ron DeSantis experienced that firsthand this past year.

[00:27:21] He couldn't replicate it and the Republicans are going to find themselves

[00:27:26] once Donald Trump is gone and eventually he will be gone.

[00:27:29] They're going to have to do some real makeover and what they look like.

[00:27:33] Can I follow up on your word bench?

[00:27:34] Please.

[00:27:36] What's the Democratic bench look like?

[00:27:38] I think Democratic bench is an interesting one and I say that because of folks

[00:27:43] that are in the administration currently have been there now for three years.

[00:27:47] We haven't seen the turnover that marred Trump's administration

[00:27:51] and you've got secretaries, whatever you think of,

[00:27:55] maybe Homeland Security or things of that nature,

[00:27:58] but these folks have been in their building careers.

[00:28:02] Mayor Pete is now Secretary Pete.

[00:28:04] There's folks that have been around.

[00:28:06] Think what you want about Kamala Harris,

[00:28:08] but she's not 80 years old and she's been in VP now

[00:28:12] and there's a bunch of folks that are out there in the Senate

[00:28:15] that are starting to do some things that are getting some leadership skills.

[00:28:18] So there's an opportunity out there,

[00:28:20] but again, to run for president is hard

[00:28:23] and you need to be able to mix a personality

[00:28:27] and you need to be able to connect with people

[00:28:29] like an Obama did, like a Clinton did

[00:28:32] if you're talking about Democrats and even a George Bush Jr.

[00:28:35] when you're thinking about Republicans lately

[00:28:37] and heaven forbid, Donald Trump connects with people

[00:28:40] and that's hard to replicate

[00:28:42] and we've seen in previous elections

[00:28:45] you have a litany of people lined up against Donald Trump on the right,

[00:28:49] they're unable to connect and that's hard to overcome.

[00:28:53] So what that magic spark is,

[00:28:55] it's really difficult to see ahead of time

[00:28:57] until people get out there under the spotlight.

[00:28:59] Speaking of connecting, what is Ron DeSantis' future?

[00:29:03] I mean, I think he's gearing up to try again in 28.

[00:29:07] I don't see any other options for him really.

[00:29:11] He's going to be in his weird spot in 26 when he's unemployed.

[00:29:14] There's not going to be a Senate seat open for him.

[00:29:17] You're not going to run for Congress again, right?

[00:29:21] What are you going to do?

[00:29:22] You're going to go back to Iowa and you're going to try again

[00:29:25] and I don't know that he'll be able to connect any better

[00:29:28] four years from now,

[00:29:29] but he won't have an enormous Donald Trump in his way.

[00:29:33] In his way? Yeah.

[00:29:34] I got one last question.

[00:29:36] Michael, I read that you've been working

[00:29:41] to improve the lines of communication

[00:29:43] between elected officials in the community.

[00:29:46] How the hell is that going?

[00:29:47] Not great!

[00:29:51] Boy, is this an uplifting show?

[00:29:54] I've got three phone calls off.

[00:29:56] I haven't been returned,

[00:29:57] so what does that tell you about communication

[00:29:59] or the person calling?

[00:30:01] No, one of the things...

[00:30:03] Listen, we do a lot of polling at the Public Appendian Research Lab

[00:30:06] and at UNF,

[00:30:07] and one of the things that everybody pays attention to

[00:30:09] is the horse-race stuff.

[00:30:10] How's this ballot measure going to do?

[00:30:12] Who's going to win this election?

[00:30:14] That's great, but it's a lot of the policy issues

[00:30:17] that elected officials that are voting on

[00:30:19] and yeah, they might hear from one lobbyist

[00:30:23] or leadership might tell them to vote a certain way

[00:30:26] because of a certain interest.

[00:30:28] They might, you know, if you're at city council,

[00:30:30] for example,

[00:30:31] maybe you've got a litany of people coming up to talk

[00:30:34] for 30 seconds or three minutes,

[00:30:35] depending upon the issue.

[00:30:37] That's not normal people.

[00:30:39] You know, like the average everyday person,

[00:30:41] that's not them.

[00:30:42] So when we reach out

[00:30:43] and we talk to these regular folks,

[00:30:45] they have an opportunity to have their voice heard

[00:30:48] and you get policy positions and interest levels

[00:30:51] on different issues and where folks stand.

[00:30:53] That's a way for folks to be able to communicate

[00:30:56] with their elected officials.

[00:30:58] How do you communicate with the young people

[00:31:02] of your student's age?

[00:31:04] It's a different world than it was for us,

[00:31:07] certainly for us, but you as well.

[00:31:09] Sure, it's always a different world.

[00:31:11] And talking to young people

[00:31:12] and communicating with young people is always difficult

[00:31:14] because they're being talked at by old people.

[00:31:16] And even when we were young,

[00:31:18] we're being talked at by old people.

[00:31:20] Yeah, we weren't lost in our social media

[00:31:22] and our phones and all those things,

[00:31:24] but it's still the idea is these folks are new to the game.

[00:31:28] They don't have decades and decades of life experience.

[00:31:32] You guys can all look at a headline

[00:31:35] and you know what the entire story says.

[00:31:37] You know, same me, right?

[00:31:39] I can scan the news, read a couple of headlines,

[00:31:42] quick summaries,

[00:31:43] and I know all that I need to know for the day

[00:31:45] and I'm really well informed.

[00:31:46] I've been able to fill that in with information I've gathered.

[00:31:48] These folks, it's all new to them.

[00:31:50] You know, pick yourself up,

[00:31:52] plop yourself down in a foreign country.

[00:31:54] Let's say that they speak English

[00:31:55] or you can at least understand the language.

[00:31:57] You're not going to know the political terrain.

[00:31:59] You're not going to know anything.

[00:32:00] And it takes time and for these folks

[00:32:02] to build up that skill set

[00:32:03] unless they're, I don't want to say bread into it,

[00:32:06] but their families bring them along.

[00:32:09] It takes time to get folks to this position.

[00:32:12] They're not ready to go all the time,

[00:32:14] but they're interested in their interests

[00:32:16] and that's understandable.

[00:32:17] I'm going to be interested to see how the,

[00:32:20] and I'll go back to the marijuana issue for a moment,

[00:32:23] since there's going to be so much reliance

[00:32:25] on the young people to get that 60%.

[00:32:28] I'm going to be interested to see

[00:32:30] just how they're going to communicate to that group

[00:32:32] to first of all make sure they understand

[00:32:34] that there's something on the ballot here

[00:32:36] that will interest them

[00:32:38] and then secondly to motivate them

[00:32:39] to actually come out and vote.

[00:32:41] Isn't this going to be what it is?

[00:32:42] Cell phones and communications that way are great.

[00:32:45] Like your anchors?

[00:32:46] Yeah.

[00:32:47] But if you're relying on people

[00:32:50] under the age of 25 to do anything politically,

[00:32:53] you're screwed.

[00:32:54] There's just no hope.

[00:32:56] I mean, long term,

[00:32:58] there's such a small percentage of the electorate

[00:33:01] relative to in this case in Florida statewide.

[00:33:04] You know, it's old folks, right?

[00:33:06] In 2022, even though that was kind of a different election,

[00:33:09] Democrats aside, not to show up,

[00:33:11] you know, more than 40% of the electorate was 65 plus.

[00:33:15] In the electronic media world,

[00:33:17] we used to say that the money demo

[00:33:20] where the money is is 25 to 49.

[00:33:23] That's the audience.

[00:33:25] You as a radio or TV station have to hit

[00:33:27] in order to become financially successful in the business.

[00:33:31] I would say the same thing for something like this

[00:33:33] and the same demographic ages of 25 to 49.

[00:33:37] Sure, but I also think that the 65 plus groups

[00:33:39] are going to play a big role in this.

[00:33:41] Yeah, because we were all in the 60s and 70s.

[00:33:43] We used to do that.

[00:33:45] Can we go back to the question that Mike Talbert asked you

[00:33:49] when he said the lines of communication

[00:33:52] for elected officials and you say it's not there?

[00:33:55] It's not great.

[00:33:57] Stupid question, but then where do we go from here?

[00:34:02] I mean, there's got something...

[00:34:05] somebody's got to be talking,

[00:34:07] somebody's got to be listening.

[00:34:09] What are we on a track to?

[00:34:11] I think the difficulty is 35, 40 years ago

[00:34:16] there were three channels,

[00:34:18] there were a couple of local newspapers.

[00:34:21] Everybody was dealing with the same sets of information.

[00:34:24] You could disagree about it,

[00:34:26] you could disagree about how to get from A to B,

[00:34:28] but you had the same facts.

[00:34:30] Now that's so different because there are so many...

[00:34:33] I don't want to say bifurcated,

[00:34:35] but there are really spread out methods of communication

[00:34:38] and methods of information transmission

[00:34:40] that things happen and people just have no idea that they occurred.

[00:34:43] And that's really difficult to overcome

[00:34:45] because you just don't have the ability to go to Spot X

[00:34:49] and obtain all the information that I need about anything.

[00:34:52] And that's not only just the consumer or the voters part,

[00:34:56] but also your elected officials, right?

[00:34:58] You only have so much time in your day,

[00:35:00] most of it spent in meetings or fundraising.

[00:35:02] And where are you going to go to be able to get information

[00:35:05] about how does my district feel about X or Y?

[00:35:08] Okay, you hold the town hall once every six months

[00:35:11] and 25 people show up.

[00:35:13] What does that really tell you?

[00:35:15] It's interesting to just piggyback on that for just a moment.

[00:35:18] It made me think about again in our generation,

[00:35:22] you turned on TV, you had Cronkite,

[00:35:25] you had Huntley and Brinkley

[00:35:26] and then you had the revolving door of ABC

[00:35:28] because they could never find an acre

[00:35:29] that could really withstand the competition of Cronkite

[00:35:32] and Brinkley and Huntley.

[00:35:35] But whatever they said was gospel to their fans.

[00:35:40] Cronkite was voted the most trusted man in America

[00:35:45] for like five years in a row.

[00:35:47] And remember what he did with the 68 convention?

[00:35:50] I don't remember Cronkite.

[00:35:52] Look, the mustache, similar to yours.

[00:35:56] No, but I mean remember, he came into our home every night

[00:36:01] and whatever he said.

[00:36:02] You believed it?

[00:36:03] Exactly.

[00:36:04] Well to go back to communicating with young people about marijuana,

[00:36:07] I've heard that John Morgan is a hard snoop dog.

[00:36:10] I wouldn't be surprised

[00:36:12] except I would have thought it would be true leave.

[00:36:14] Not John Morgan.

[00:36:16] True leave is the one that's really putting the money in this.

[00:36:18] They put $40 million in the medical marijuana measure.

[00:36:23] Well it's an extremely big industry.

[00:36:27] And you look across the country, the states that have had it,

[00:36:30] they haven't fallen apart, right?

[00:36:32] I mean this isn't real for madness from the 40s.

[00:36:35] But it is not necessarily the giant boon of tax dollars

[00:36:40] that maybe folks initially thought it was going to be

[00:36:43] when maybe Colorado first legalized recreational.

[00:36:46] Now wait till you see the excise taxes that are going to be put on marijuana

[00:36:50] if it does pass recreationally.

[00:36:52] They're going to do just as they did with alcohol.

[00:36:54] It's going to be the same kind of excise tax

[00:36:56] and that's going to be above and beyond everything else

[00:36:58] that they're charging in state taxes and all that.

[00:37:00] That's why I don't drink.

[00:37:02] It doesn't drink anymore.

[00:37:05] It doesn't even drink less.

[00:37:07] Well folks, we'll have more truth next week from our guys.

[00:37:11] Well again, I want to go back to this thing

[00:37:15] where you're talking about, so we've got,

[00:37:17] you've got a city council, you've got a mayor.

[00:37:20] People aren't communicating.

[00:37:24] We have limited media coverage.

[00:37:28] How does the Jacksonville public understand

[00:37:32] or do they understand what this mayor is doing

[00:37:35] and what this council is doing?

[00:37:37] I think in the, they listen to this podcast.

[00:37:40] Okay so if you're listening we're in what up, it was up to seven.

[00:37:44] So there you go.

[00:37:45] All seven people in the chat.

[00:37:48] But reality, I don't want to say there's no hope,

[00:37:52] there's never hope, but on the larger issues they do

[00:37:56] and you talked about the limited media exposure

[00:37:59] that we have here and it's right, the TU is shrinking.

[00:38:02] The guys there and the gals there do a fantastic job.

[00:38:05] Unbelievable job.

[00:38:06] Right, with what they do, with what the resources they have.

[00:38:09] But the big issues, I think folks know, right, J-E-A,

[00:38:13] that was an enormously big issue and through hard work

[00:38:17] of local media and voters kind of paying attention to this

[00:38:21] that they caught on and it got stopped.

[00:38:23] Those are opportunities that I think exist.

[00:38:26] Does the little stuff always get caught?

[00:38:28] Now there's some auditors in city council that, you know,

[00:38:31] have caught some stuff along the way and you know,

[00:38:33] not just J-E-A but other stuff as well and that's great.

[00:38:37] But you know, you don't know what's not getting caught

[00:38:41] if you're not catching it.

[00:38:43] And that is really the worry when you cripple the media

[00:38:48] and the Fourth Estate and their role as a watchdog.

[00:38:51] If ethics rules are weak to non-existent

[00:38:56] and the media is hampered and limited, you know,

[00:39:00] where are you?

[00:39:01] And that's really unfortunate and this is something

[00:39:04] that now there's a lot of kind of individuals

[00:39:09] that are trying to step up that maybe aren't necessarily affiliated

[00:39:12] with the big old legacy newspapers.

[00:39:14] You know, you think locally like...

[00:39:15] Like Andrew Pantassi.

[00:39:16] Like Pantassi who used to be with one of the papers

[00:39:18] or maybe an AG who's not necessarily with the traditional media

[00:39:23] but does a lot of great investigative work too.

[00:39:26] Billy Tucker?

[00:39:27] Billy Tucker's got a...

[00:39:28] Mike Cruz?

[00:39:29] Yeah.

[00:39:30] Right, so you can look around.

[00:39:31] There's folks there but again it's democratized

[00:39:35] and it's not all in one spot and sometimes it's harder to find.

[00:39:38] Yeah.

[00:39:39] All right.

[00:39:40] Does that say the role of political consultants

[00:39:44] are going to be even more critical down the road?

[00:39:47] Or more...

[00:39:48] The chance of them being more influential?

[00:39:50] I certainly think the good ones, yes.

[00:39:53] But you know, how many good ones are there?

[00:39:56] I was going to just say I was just trying to think of...

[00:39:58] I thought my fingers I couldn't...

[00:40:00] We've not had a good track record of late on that one.

[00:40:04] It depends on what side of the...

[00:40:05] Oh, you're on it.

[00:40:06] Isn't it?

[00:40:07] I won't talk about this guy.

[00:40:08] It depends on what your goals are, right?

[00:40:10] If it's just to get elected that's one thing.

[00:40:12] If it's maybe to move on to other larger national campaigns

[00:40:15] maybe you can point to some successes.

[00:40:17] Susie?

[00:40:18] Thank you Mike.

[00:40:19] Very, very much for being with us.

[00:40:21] Dr. Benjamin, you're great to have you.

[00:40:22] We appreciate it.

[00:40:23] Four mics?

[00:40:24] Four mics.

[00:40:25] Can't do better than I mean...

[00:40:27] We work around it a lot.

[00:40:29] And we got tolerated.

[00:40:31] And I won't be back for a year.

[00:40:34] Keep us informed with what you're doing.

[00:40:36] Please come back and the phone works both ways.

[00:40:39] If you've got something you need to talk about

[00:40:41] or you feel that the audience is going to be interested in,

[00:40:43] call us.

[00:40:44] We're in the field right now with a national survey.

[00:40:46] Oh good.

[00:40:47] So there's a lot of good policy issues in there,

[00:40:49] nationally abortion and then of course

[00:40:51] the Trump-Biden stuff but a lot of fun stuff there too.

[00:40:54] We'll keep us posted.

[00:40:55] We'll do.

[00:40:56] Appreciate it.

[00:40:57] Once again too we want to thank our sponsors,

[00:40:59] Mike's on Mike and that's Alan Bliss

[00:41:01] at the Jacksonville Historical Society

[00:41:03] at the Jacksonville History Center.

[00:41:05] We just got to see him yesterday as a matter of fact

[00:41:07] and he sends his best wishes to everybody

[00:41:09] and we're delighted to have him as a part of this program,

[00:41:12] a very important part of this program as well.

[00:41:14] And a part of our community.

[00:41:16] Thank you for watching us.

[00:41:17] We'll see you again next week.

[00:41:18] Take care everybody.

[00:41:31] We'll see you next time for more conversation with Mike's on Mike.

[00:41:37] Mike.